Let's Give Murphy A Chance

I am so tired of hearing Mike Francesa on WFAN sports radio in New York, and everyone else for that matter, arguing that you need a power-hitting first baseman, a gold glove first baseman or a combination of both in order to win. Sure, it would be nice to have but it’s not always a prerequisite for success. I would like to provide you with a perspective that makes this clear. The following is a list of first baseman over the last 19 years, who have been on a World Series winning team, had similar production offensively or had numbers which are not far-fetched for Murphy:

Daniel Murphy, 2009, 1B, Mets:
Totals: .266BA, 12HR, 63RBI, 60R

Todd Benzinger/Hal Morris, 1990, 1B, Reds:

Benzinger: .253BA, 5HR, 46RBI, 35R
Morris: .340BA, 7HR, 36RBI, 50R
Totals: .292BA, 12HR, 82RBI, 85R

Kent Hrbeck 1991, 1B, Twins
Totals: .284BA, 20HR, 89RBI, 72R

Jeff Conine 1997, 1B, Marlins
Totals: .242BA, 17HR, 61RBI, 46R

Tino Martinez, 2000, 1B, Yankees
Totals: .258BA, 16HR, 91RBI, 69R

Mark Grace, 2001, 1B, Diamondbacks
Totals: .298BA, 15HR, 78RBI, 66R

Scott Spiezio, 2002, 1B, Angels
Totals: .285BA, 12HR, 82RBI, 80R

Kevin Millar, 2004, 1B Red Sox
Totals: .297BA, 18HR, 74RBI, 74R

The fact is that teams with a Murphy-type offensive player at 1B have won a World Series 7 times over the last 19 years. For all you mathematicians out there that is 37% of the time.

Granted some were slick fielders, like Grace but others weren’t exactly Keith Hernandez either, e.g. Kent Hrbeck, Spiezio. Why is it unrealistic to say that Murphy can develop into a good defensive first baseman? He wouldn’t be the first in history! In fact, he would be one of a long list of converted first baseman that made a good transition defensively, e.g. Albert Pujols, Todd Zeile, Jeff Bagwell to name a few. In fact, I argue, that he really evolved defensively as the 2009 season went along.

To my knowledge, all but two of the first baseman on the above list is either borderline or average defensively. Grace and Martinez were the only ones on this list who were great fielders and only Grace has won the gold gloves. Grace, however, was already past his prime at this point in his career with the Diamondbacks and his offensive output in 2001 didn’t exactly blow Murphy away. You are probably wondering why I included Tino Martinez considering that he was a good power hitting first baseman for most of his career, but for the first two full years of his career he hit 16HR with 66RBI, and 17HR with 60RBI, respectively. In 2000 he hit a robust .258 with 16HR.

Bottom line? Over the last 19 years a team has won a World Series title with a Murphy-type first baseman almost 40 percent of the time. It's a fallacious argument to say that the Mets can't win with Murphy at first base when other teams have power hitting at this position. I can always counter with the following rebuttal: how many teams in the NL have a Wright at 3B, a Reyes at SS, a Bay in LF, Beltran when healthy in CF or even Johan as their Ace in the hole? Not too many. Finally, it sounds like Murphy has worked hard during the off season, which is good news. Let’s not overlook that Murphy made some adjustments at the plate last year and actually had a decent 2nd half with no protection in the lineup. His final 72 games yielded the following line: .282BA, 7HR, 35RBI and 30R.

Hey, I may be all wrong and he may turn out to be a bust this year. But it’s a bit premature to start labeling this guy a bust or to start saying the Mets have no shot with him at first base. It’s a new season so let’s give “The Irish Hammer” a chance to start driving some nails in that Phillies coffin!

Go Get Pedro!

Let me be transparent with my fellow Mets fans out there, I am sick and tired of Omar Minaya’s unyielding stubbornness! Here we are two weeks into spring training and we still have to deal with guys like Livan Hernandez, Freddy Garcia, Tim Redding and Jon Niese battling for a spot. That if Minaya had played his cards right there would be no contest. Minaya’s moves scream out the following argument. If “Unsteady Freddy” can recover from his shoulder surgery, then we could have a potential “Ace-In-The-Hole” in the words of our beloved GM. Or if ‘Livan the Large’ can recover from his knee troubles, maybe he can erase the memory of his putrid 6.05 ERA from his 2008 season. Or if ‘Tim the Terrible’ can duplicate his near 5 ERA from last year we could possibly get 180 innings of below average performances. Or lastly, just MAYBE ‘Jon Nubie Niese’ can make the jump from the minor leagues and be a successful starter at the major league level.

While I do like what I see from this promising young rookie, it doesn’t change the fact that he is still only a rookie with an average fastball ranging from 88-92MPH, who you would ideally like to see develop better command of all his pitches at the minor league level. Too often we have seen young pitchers try to learn their craft at the major league level and either get injured (i.e., Francisco Liriano) or get their confidence shattered (i.e., Jason Isringhausen) I think the latter is still seeing shrinks because of the Mets organizational blunders!

I’m sorry Omar, but your logic is completely nonsensical, especially when juxtaposed with your reasoning for not re-signing Pedro Martinez. Since you’re clearly indicating by your tepid interest that Pedro at 37 years of age may have nothing left or that he is too injury prone, I scream in response, Why the hell did you sign an alleged 34 year old 250lb pitcher with knee problems and a guy who’s had major shoulder surgery and was not half the pitcher Pedro was before the surgery to a potential 8 million dollar contract?

These personnel determinations display poor evaluation and decision-making skills Mr. Minaya! Why not roll the dice on Pedro as your No. 5 starter? The bottom line is that he has had only one poor season in his entire career and it happened to come last year a year that saw the death of his father and a delayed start to the season due to a strained hamstring. For any pitcher to be “right” his mind needs to be clear and he needs spring training innings under his belt to shake off the rust. Unfortunately Pedro’s last season was bereft of these two important elements of a pitchers game.

Let’s take a closer look at last season. After Pedro returned, June essentially became his extended spring training and unfortunately he got off to a rocky start. This is to be expected from a pitcher only one year removed from shoulder surgery. From July 07th through August 31st, however, in a span of 51.2 innings he pitched to a 3.51 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP and 42Ks. During this span Pedro exhibited signs of improved arm strength as his velocity increased from 83-88MPH in June to a peak of 93MPH in a game against the Phillies on August 26th. And as one would expect, Pedro bottomed out to finish the season, due to not having pitched for a full season and the mental strain that must have been afflicting him leading up the death of his father combined with a lack of conditioning due to not having a spring training.

I am not arguing that Pedro will ever be the pitcher he once was. What I am arguing is that Pedro clearly exhibited signs of being an above-average starter for a nice chunk of last season. That to me is a step up from the aforementioned grade-C starters. Already, Felipe Alou is singing Pedro’s praises as he pitches for the Dominican in the WBC, displaying a fastball clocked in the low 90’s and showing good command of his changeup this early in the pre-season. I fully expect Pedro, now 2 years removed from shoulder surgery to have a strong season for whatever team takes a chance on him this year. I just desperately hope that team’s our NY Mets! Let’s go Minaya, get on the damn ball!