Top 10 Roto 3rd Baseman By Tier

There are three tiers of fantasy position players, Gold - over 95% ownership, Silver - between 85% and 94% ownership and
Bronze - 84% ownership and below. The following players are the top 10 ranked 3rd baseman within each of these categories according to their percentage of ownership in fantasy leagues across America for the last two MLB seasons:

Gold Tier

1) Miguel Cabrera
2) Adrian Beltre

Silver Tier 

3) Evan Longoria
4) David Wright
5) Ryan Zimmerman

Bronze Tier 

6) Josh Donaldson
7) Manny Machado
8) Matt Carpenter
9) Pedro Alvarez
10) Brett Lawrie

While many other 3rd baseman could have made the "Bronze Tier", I elected not to include them because they are frankly not even worth discussing by the proverbial office water cooler. Check in tomorrow for my top 10 catchers.

I Know It’s Early But…

I know it’s early and ten games is hardly a season, but I would like to point out that everyone in NY, the media, the analysts, the doom and gloom fans (you know who you are) had the Mets being the worst team since 1962. Well, I was reading a post on Metsblog today and saw the following tidbit:

“They are off to the fourth best start in club history at 7-3. They started 8-2 in 1972, 1985, and 2006.”

That’s a pretty darn good start. Hopefully, they keep inspiring, keep proving the naysayers wrong, humble the so-called “experts” and prove to the fans that they are worth watching. Ray Kinsella said it best in the movie Field of Dreams, “If you build it, he will come.” Every time the young guys do something it reminds me of why I love my team. Keep building Sandy, keep building and I’ll keep believing.

Why I Love My Mets…My Lovable Underdogs

Underdogs are people we can relate to; they’re unrefined and real. In the 1969 World Series, the Baltimore Orioles were the American League’s powerhouse and entered the matchup as the heavy favorites over the lowly Mets. The Mets were called the “Miracle Mets”, why, because they were comprised of a bunch of players who never finished higher than ninth place in a ten team league. They were a team filled with hardened, well-trained professionals and came out on top. When we see a rag-tag band of misfits like the ’69 Mets pull out a win against overwhelming odds, we’re reminded of regular people like ourselves. In the final analysis, New York shut down the most fearsome line-up in all of baseball.

There’s no pleasure in watching people who have had every advantage and financial resources to do what they’ve been trained to do, win. It’s hard to feel a kinship with a player or a team who, as a rite of passage is ‘expected’, to always be the undisputed champion. We would rather root for the average player who picks up a bat and discovers an extraordinary gift for the game. We can’t relate to extravagant packaging, expensive titivation, wanna-be man gods. We like the authenticity of the underdog themed stories that never die. We relate to their desire to belong and be respected, which is why I love rooting for the Mets. It’s why we love movies like The Karate Kid, Rudy and of course my personal favorite, Rocky. Heck, I believe it’s one of the reasons why Sylvester Stallone garnered 10 Oscar nominations in 1976. We love the concept of the underdog and the rest of the world. And we, as movie goers, sports fans, regular people, enjoy rooting for the underdog more than anything else in the entertainment industry.

It's a phenomenon rooted in our human nature from art, work to sports. For anyone who has ever watched the World Series when their team wasn’t a participant, most times, they'll ask: who is the underdog? There are certain characteristics and circumstances which the underdog must possess. First off, the underdog must be someone with whom we can relate. A true underdog hero is someone who comes from the areas we come from, the streets we grew up on and the schools we attended. They are perceived to have weaker skills than their more talented competition, but always have the tenacity to become better, it’s why we love athletes in general, a lot of them come from impoverished neighborhoods. An underdog stands up to society and its opinions of them, trying hard to become stronger and better, no matter what everyone tells them. There's a reason that we see films every single year play out the same formula as their predecessors, people enjoy watching them.

If you look at some of the most popular children’s cartoons they tell the story of the nerdy, quiet kid who is gifted with special powers, or an amazing quest with the chance to overcome all odds. They are often faced with all sorts of obstacles and eventually overcome them, joining the ranks of the truly great. I mean isn’t Spiderman none other than the dorky Peter Parker? The moral message inherent in these and other stories is vital to our connectivity to them. There's a good reason why sports fans willingly choose to suffer and shell out more money. It's a chance to vicariously live one's own experiences through the triumphs of another. It's a psychological release as well as an exciting chance to witness something we can only dream for our own lives.

When Rocky goes the distance with Creed, we can't help to think that if a regular guy from the streets of Philly can make it, why not us? When we see the formless, talentless Karate Kid win the championship, we wonder why our own podgy bodies cannot someday overcome the lethargy that plagues our days and nights and become an athletic superstar. This is why I love the Mets, because they embody one of the best and most enduring themes in human society, triumph against all odds. We all want to overcome adversity and become something special. Since 1969, my team has offered us a glimpse of the determination and will we need to survive. If the Mets can be inspirational despite awful ownership, horrible direction, and dreadful decision-making, I can accept that. Mets fans are always living and dying with their team, mostly dying, but there is always the possibility of the underdog roaring from complete obscurity to conquer the odds.

A friend of mine recently lent me the 1977 movie “Oh, God!”, and I got a kick out of George Burns’ wittiness playing God. In the movie, John Denver asks Burns to prove his divinity by performing a miracle. Burns replies, “The last miracle I did was the 1969 Mets. Before that, I think you have to go back to the Red Sea.” This made me laugh, as we should, because therein lies the reason we love them, because they are entertaining to watch, a real life underdog drama. I’ve realized that Mets fans unnecessarily are the cause of their own stress. The other question from the movie, I think succinctly wraps up our accusatory nature, is when Denver again tests God and defiantly asks “if you're God, how can you permit all the suffering that goes on in the world?” And God, played by Burns, replies, “I don't permit the suffering - you do.” And that’s how I feel about our view of the Mets, we love them, but we only suffer because we allow an inevitable part of the game, failure, push us over the edge.

The Disciples Mets Pitching Projections

This is part 1 of 2 of my NY Mets 2012 forecast:

Starting Rotation:
Johan Santana – 13-9WL, 3.13ERA, 1.21Whip, 173IP, 155K’s, 26GS
RA Dickey – 11-9WL, 3.45ERA, 1.23Whip, 201IP, 134K’s, 33GS
Jon Niese – 16-9, 3.30ERA, 1.20Whip, 185IP, 175K’s, 32GS (Breakout Campaign)
Mike Pelfrey – 14-10WL, 3.72ERA, 1.35Whip, 198IP, 150K’s, 31GS
Dillon Gee – 13-6WL, 4.04ERA, 1.34Whip, 180IP, 135K’s, 28GS

Bullpen:
Frank Francisco – 3-2WL, 3.05ERA, 1.15Whip, 51IP, 60K’s, 31SV
Jon Rauch – 4-2WL, 3.50ERA, 1.30Whip, 52IP, 45K’s, 4SV
Ramon Ramirez – 3-2WL, 2.64ERA, 1.13Whip, 65IP, 63K’s, 2SV
Bobby Parnell – 2-3WL, 3.20ERA, 1.35Whip, 55IP, 57K’s, 0SV
Tim Byrdak – 1-2WL, 3.49ERA, 1.40Whip, 37IP, 40K’s, 0SV
Pedro Beato – 2-3WL, 3.85ERA, 1.24Whip, 50IP, 40K’s, 1SV

This would give the Mets a record of 82-80 for the season. That's the way I see things playing out in 2012. I compiled these numbers from an amalgamation of conservative career averages for most players and my own prediction for the breakout performances.

Part 2 - Hitters Projections will be coming tomorrow.

A True Professional, Thank You Gary Carter!

I was only eight years old when I became a Mets fan; I just want to thank you Mr. Carter, I owe it to guys like you, Darryl Strawberry, Dwight Gooden and Keith Hernandez for loving the Mets as much as I have for the last twenty seven years. Thank you Gary for providing me with so much joy in my life, you were the epitome of class and every young player in baseball would do well to follow in your footsteps. It truly is a sad day in baseball, I just hope that my son will be blessed enough to grow up loving and learning from a true professional baseball player and man like you. You will be missed but never forgotten, that smile will forever be firmly entrenched in my mind. That hit with two outs in Game 6 of the 1986 World Series has provided me with hope that will last a lifetime. I pray that your family gets through this ordeal with the peace that surpasses all understanding. Mr. Carter, you lived your life believing that all things were possible and you truly were a living example of Jesus’ words in Mark 9 verse 23 when he declared, “What do you mean, ‘If I can’?” Jesus asked. “Anything is possible if a person believes.” (NLT) Thank you Mr. Carter.

The Morning After...

I’d like to preface what I am about to say by stating that I personally love Jose Reyes, there is no bigger fan of this man’s abilities. Nevertheless, we must face the reality as Mets fans that the team is moving in a different direction and I for one welcome the change. The fact that the Mets have lost money is no secret and I am not as pessimistic as some other fans. Hidden behind every doomsday scenario is a silver lining, by letting Reyes walk, Sandy Alderson is clearly attempting to mold this team to personify his definition of a winning strategy. We were lucky enough to witness Reyes at his best from 2005 through 2008 and at his worst during the Mets 2007-08 September collapses and of course all the injuries that would follow between the 2009-11 seasons. There is no doubt that when Reyes is able to stay on the field he is one the games best at his position, but in recent years his injuries have destroyed the Mets chances because they were so reliant on him to succeed. He's also a player who relies heavily on his speed and whose legs have been the primary source of his troubles.

Obviously not signing Reyes is not going to be received well here in NY amongst a large portion of the Met fan base, who is longing for a return the World Series, but this shouldn’t be a people pleasing business, it’s a bottom line business that will put fans in the seats if you can win regardless of the formula. Sandy Alderson said in response to losing Reyes and possibly rebuilding: "I'm not conceding anything with respect to 2012,"… "The Diamondbacks didn't concede anything about 2011. The Cardinals didn't concede anything about September. Stuff happens in baseball." And that’s it in a nutshell; stuff happens in baseball from one year to the next, I once read an article in Sports Illustrated that listed a bunch of teams that went from last place to first from one year to the next from 1990 through 2008. I have taken the liberty of listing those teams and adding the most recent example from 2010 to 2011:

1990/91 Braves (‘90: 67-95; ‘91: 92-70): The addition of veteran leadership from Terry Pendleton (the '91 NL MVP), Sid Bream and Rafael Belliard helped carry the Braves from worst-to-first, but it was the core of blossoming young hurlers that propelled the team. Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and Steve Avery formed the cornerstone of a beginning dynasty.

1990/91 Twins ('90: 74-88; '91: 94-68): The offseason signings of Jack Morris and Chili Davis gave the Twins the frontline starter and switch-hitting power bat they needed to turn the franchise around quickly. Those two, AL Rookie of the Year Chuck Knoblauch and Kirby Puckett carried the Twins to their second World Series title in an epic matchup of worst-to-first teams.

1992/93 Phillies ('92: 78-84; '93: 93-69): Keyed by attitude and sporting mullets, the '93 Phillies relied on a veteran cast of colorful characters to reverse their fortunes. Tough, scrappy players like Darren Daulton, John Kruk, Lenny Dykstra and Curt Schilling led the way as the Phils toppled the favored Atlanta Braves in the NLCS and moved on to the World Series.

1996/97 Giants ('96: 71-91; '97: 90-72): Two offseason trades invigorated what was already a solid Giants lineup. San Francisco acquired future MVP Jeff Kent from the Indians and first baseman J.T. Snow from the Angels. The Giants also bolstered their pitching staff with a deadline deal, acquiring Wilson Alvarez, Roberto Hernandez and Danny Darwin from the White Sox on their way to nailing down an NL West crown.

1997/98 Padres ('97: 76-86; '98: 98-64): After watching the Giants go worst-to-first in their division the year before, the Padres added Kevin Brown to an already strong pitching rotation. Brown went 18-7 in '98 and posted a 2.38 ERA. Runs were never at a premium in a lineup with Tony Gwynn, Ken Caminiti, Greg Vaughn and Steve Finley, and the Padres ran away in the West, winning the division by 9.5 games.

1998/99 Diamondbacks ('98: 65-97, '99: 100-62): The expansion Diamondbacks lost 97 games in their inaugural season of 1998, but the signing of star left-handed pitcher Randy Johnson in the offseason dramatically altered their fortunes. Johnson went on to win the first of four straight Cy Young awards in 1999 and the Diamondbacks finished with 100 victories. They captured the NL West title by 14 games but fell to the Mets in the Division Series.

2006/07 Cubs ('06: 66-96, '07: 85-77): The Cubs slumped to a 96-loss season in 2006, but rebounded in 2007 behind new manager Lou Piniella and a roster bolstered by $300 million worth of new additions, like Alfonso Soriano and pitcher Ted Lilly. The Cubs were stuck at 22-31 in June before catching fire and winning the NL Central in the last week of the season.

2006/07 Diamondbacks ('06: 76-86, '07: 90-72): The D'backs lost 111 games in 2004 and even though they improved to 76-86 two years later, they still finished tied for last in the NL West. But in 2007, despite a young roster and an offense that was outscored for the season, the D'backs pitched their way to 90 wins and the NL West crown. Arizona was swept out of the NLCS by the Rockies.

2007/08 Rays ('07: 66-96, '08: 97-65): 2007 was not much different than every other season in the Rays' brief history. They lost 101 games, their third 100-loss season, and finished in last place in the AL East for the ninth time in their 10 seasons. But in 2008, with a cast of young stars led by rookie third baseman Evan Longoria, the Rays jumped to an early lead in the AL East and held it almost every day the rest of the way. After winning the division, the Rays advanced to their first World Series by eliminating the White Sox in the Division Series and the defending world champion Red Sox in the ALCS.

2010/11 Diamondbacks (’10: 65-97, ’11: 94-68): In a season projected by many to be a last place finish, the Arizona Diamondbacks bucked expectations maintaining playoff contention at the All Star break with a 49-43 record, only 3 games behind the 1st place San Francisco Giants. The Diamondbacks' success was credited to the approach of manager Kirk Gibson as well as strong starting pitching behind Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Joe Saunders, and rookie Josh Collmenter as well as a much improved bullpen led by closer J. J. Putz.

The point is that in baseball, clearly anything is possible as the record reflects. I’m not predicting the Mets will win it all in 2012, but I haven’t given up hope because there are a number of things to like about this team going forward. The return of Johan and a full season of Wright, the progression of Niese, Gee, Davis, Duda,, Murphy and of course the continual plan of building a strong foundation of pitching from within, e.g.) Matt Harvey, Zach Wheeler, J. Familia and J. Mejia. Quite frankly I’m tired of plugging holes with high priced free agents for the long haul which cripples our financial flexibility. And I’m not the only one who feels this way, in a recent poll conducted on one of my favorite blogs, metsblog.com, of the roughly 8,000 fans who voted 85% said they wouldn’t have given Reyes more than 5 years.

Listen fellow Met fans, it isn’t all gloom and doom in Metville. Baseball is a cyclical sport, we will be out from under this Madoff mess soon enough, and when we are, hopefully Alderson and his trusted regime of intellectuals would have built us a new sustainable nucleus, superior to the last one under Minaya that didn’t win us a thing! Please don't forget this, for every exciting moment Reyes provided he was equally frustrating, e.g.) .204BA during the September ‘07 collapse. REYES DID NOT WIN US A THING PEOPLE! When the Mets brass is able to put this financial nightmare behind them, possibly as soon as 2013, we might be able to supplement our core with one or maybe two of Josh Hamilton, Matt Cain, Zack Greinke or Brandon Phillips et al. My plea to you loyal Mets fans out there is: Don’t be fickle and jump ship, especially with this new MLB format. We root for the uniform, always remember it’s the blue and orange that runs through our veins. If your son disappoints you, do you abandon him? If your wife disappoints you do you divorce her? If your best friend upsets you do you put an end to your friendship? I sure hope our faith isn’t that capricious.

In keeping with my Christian faith I’d like to urge you to consider the following appeals: "Consider it pure joy, my brothers, whenever you face trials of many kinds, because you know that the testing of your faith develops perseverance. Perseverance must finish its work so that you may be mature and complete, not lacking anything." James 1:2-4 And don’t worry Met fans “…Weeping may last through the night, but joy comes in the morning.” Psalm 30:5.

A BRIGHT FUTURE

With all the negativity currently surrounding the Mets organization, I felt I needed to highlight a few positives so we can all collectively exhale. Here is a list of things we as fans can really get excited about:

1) The rebirth of Angel Pagan.

2) Jose Reyes is finally healthy again.

3) David Wright has regained his power stroke.

4) Ike Davis has brought stability to a position that has been lacking power and defense since the departure of John Olerud.

5) Jon Niese has emerged as at the very least a bona fide #3 starter.

6) Mike Pelfrey seems to have made some adjustments, and although he hit a rough patch, he looks like he’s putting it together. Either way, he has given us a solid year thus far with an 11-6 record and a solid 3.95 ERA.

7) Josh Thole is developing more and more each day; let’s not forget that he recently made his transition to catcher in 2008. Although he lacks the power of a Victor Martinez at this point in his career, the 23 year old possesses a tremendous ability to handle the stick as his current .323BA suggests. The future is bright for this kid and his gap power plus high on base percentage are a perfect match for CitiField.

8) Ruben Tejada has shown flashes of defensive greatness as a 2nd baseman.

9) Carlos Beltran struggled in his 1st year as a Met and rebounded to be an All-Star the following season and hopefully we can get the same kind of turn-a-round from Jason Bay.

10) Fernando Martinez will be our starting right fielder next year and quite frankly, I’m very excited about seeing him in our everyday lineup for the whole year. His latest resurgence in (AAA) really has flown under the radar, over his last 11 games at Buffalo before his call-up; he was batting .324 with three doubles, three HR and four RBI. Toby Hyde on MetsMinorLeagueBlog does an excellent job discussing how Fernando Martinez might be underrated by comparing him to some big prospects down on the farm.

So, in light of all this, we as Mets fans need to realize that at some point the Sun always shines after a storm! Barring any trades it excites me to know that our 2011 starting lineup could look something like this:

Jose Reyes SS
Angel Pagan RF
David Wright 3B
Carlos Beltran CF
Jason Bay LF
Ike Davis 1B
Josh Thole C
Ruben Tejada 2B

And our starting pitching could look something like this:

Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Jon Niese
Jenrry Mejia
RA Dickey/Pat Misch

I left out John Maine and Oliver Perez because I am hoping the Mets muster up the courage to just cut ties with them. Regardless, it feels good to know that the majority of our roster will be comprised of quality young players from our farm system. Despite the negativity surrounding this team, I feel they are headed in the right direction as long as they cut bait with the obvious bad apples. There is a popular saying which states that “One bad apple spoils the whole bunch”, well hopefully, Wilpon will subscribe to the American Journal of Botany, and skim to the section discussing this process and cut ties with Ollie P., the clear source of the foul gases infecting the Met bunch.


Nonetheless, our young talent is finally starting to sprout, and even with this plethora of young talent on the Major League level, we’ll still have highly rated prospects down on the farm like Wilmer Flores SS, Brad Holt RHP, Reese Havens 2B/SS, Juan Urbina LHP, Jordany Valdespin 2B/SS, Dillon Gee RHP, Kirk Nieuwenhuis OF and Matt Harvey RHP.

To those long suffering Mets fans out there: YA GOTTA BELIEVE!!!