The Disciples Mets Pitching Projections

This is part 1 of 2 of my NY Mets 2012 forecast:

Starting Rotation:
Johan Santana – 13-9WL, 3.13ERA, 1.21Whip, 173IP, 155K’s, 26GS
RA Dickey – 11-9WL, 3.45ERA, 1.23Whip, 201IP, 134K’s, 33GS
Jon Niese – 16-9, 3.30ERA, 1.20Whip, 185IP, 175K’s, 32GS (Breakout Campaign)
Mike Pelfrey – 14-10WL, 3.72ERA, 1.35Whip, 198IP, 150K’s, 31GS
Dillon Gee – 13-6WL, 4.04ERA, 1.34Whip, 180IP, 135K’s, 28GS

Bullpen:
Frank Francisco – 3-2WL, 3.05ERA, 1.15Whip, 51IP, 60K’s, 31SV
Jon Rauch – 4-2WL, 3.50ERA, 1.30Whip, 52IP, 45K’s, 4SV
Ramon Ramirez – 3-2WL, 2.64ERA, 1.13Whip, 65IP, 63K’s, 2SV
Bobby Parnell – 2-3WL, 3.20ERA, 1.35Whip, 55IP, 57K’s, 0SV
Tim Byrdak – 1-2WL, 3.49ERA, 1.40Whip, 37IP, 40K’s, 0SV
Pedro Beato – 2-3WL, 3.85ERA, 1.24Whip, 50IP, 40K’s, 1SV

This would give the Mets a record of 82-80 for the season. That's the way I see things playing out in 2012. I compiled these numbers from an amalgamation of conservative career averages for most players and my own prediction for the breakout performances.

Part 2 - Hitters Projections will be coming tomorrow.

A True Professional, Thank You Gary Carter!

I was only eight years old when I became a Mets fan; I just want to thank you Mr. Carter, I owe it to guys like you, Darryl Strawberry, Dwight Gooden and Keith Hernandez for loving the Mets as much as I have for the last twenty seven years. Thank you Gary for providing me with so much joy in my life, you were the epitome of class and every young player in baseball would do well to follow in your footsteps. It truly is a sad day in baseball, I just hope that my son will be blessed enough to grow up loving and learning from a true professional baseball player and man like you. You will be missed but never forgotten, that smile will forever be firmly entrenched in my mind. That hit with two outs in Game 6 of the 1986 World Series has provided me with hope that will last a lifetime. I pray that your family gets through this ordeal with the peace that surpasses all understanding. Mr. Carter, you lived your life believing that all things were possible and you truly were a living example of Jesus’ words in Mark 9 verse 23 when he declared, “What do you mean, ‘If I can’?” Jesus asked. “Anything is possible if a person believes.” (NLT) Thank you Mr. Carter.

The Morning After...

I’d like to preface what I am about to say by stating that I personally love Jose Reyes, there is no bigger fan of this man’s abilities. Nevertheless, we must face the reality as Mets fans that the team is moving in a different direction and I for one welcome the change. The fact that the Mets have lost money is no secret and I am not as pessimistic as some other fans. Hidden behind every doomsday scenario is a silver lining, by letting Reyes walk, Sandy Alderson is clearly attempting to mold this team to personify his definition of a winning strategy. We were lucky enough to witness Reyes at his best from 2005 through 2008 and at his worst during the Mets 2007-08 September collapses and of course all the injuries that would follow between the 2009-11 seasons. There is no doubt that when Reyes is able to stay on the field he is one the games best at his position, but in recent years his injuries have destroyed the Mets chances because they were so reliant on him to succeed. He's also a player who relies heavily on his speed and whose legs have been the primary source of his troubles.

Obviously not signing Reyes is not going to be received well here in NY amongst a large portion of the Met fan base, who is longing for a return the World Series, but this shouldn’t be a people pleasing business, it’s a bottom line business that will put fans in the seats if you can win regardless of the formula. Sandy Alderson said in response to losing Reyes and possibly rebuilding: "I'm not conceding anything with respect to 2012,"… "The Diamondbacks didn't concede anything about 2011. The Cardinals didn't concede anything about September. Stuff happens in baseball." And that’s it in a nutshell; stuff happens in baseball from one year to the next, I once read an article in Sports Illustrated that listed a bunch of teams that went from last place to first from one year to the next from 1990 through 2008. I have taken the liberty of listing those teams and adding the most recent example from 2010 to 2011:

1990/91 Braves (‘90: 67-95; ‘91: 92-70): The addition of veteran leadership from Terry Pendleton (the '91 NL MVP), Sid Bream and Rafael Belliard helped carry the Braves from worst-to-first, but it was the core of blossoming young hurlers that propelled the team. Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and Steve Avery formed the cornerstone of a beginning dynasty.

1990/91 Twins ('90: 74-88; '91: 94-68): The offseason signings of Jack Morris and Chili Davis gave the Twins the frontline starter and switch-hitting power bat they needed to turn the franchise around quickly. Those two, AL Rookie of the Year Chuck Knoblauch and Kirby Puckett carried the Twins to their second World Series title in an epic matchup of worst-to-first teams.

1992/93 Phillies ('92: 78-84; '93: 93-69): Keyed by attitude and sporting mullets, the '93 Phillies relied on a veteran cast of colorful characters to reverse their fortunes. Tough, scrappy players like Darren Daulton, John Kruk, Lenny Dykstra and Curt Schilling led the way as the Phils toppled the favored Atlanta Braves in the NLCS and moved on to the World Series.

1996/97 Giants ('96: 71-91; '97: 90-72): Two offseason trades invigorated what was already a solid Giants lineup. San Francisco acquired future MVP Jeff Kent from the Indians and first baseman J.T. Snow from the Angels. The Giants also bolstered their pitching staff with a deadline deal, acquiring Wilson Alvarez, Roberto Hernandez and Danny Darwin from the White Sox on their way to nailing down an NL West crown.

1997/98 Padres ('97: 76-86; '98: 98-64): After watching the Giants go worst-to-first in their division the year before, the Padres added Kevin Brown to an already strong pitching rotation. Brown went 18-7 in '98 and posted a 2.38 ERA. Runs were never at a premium in a lineup with Tony Gwynn, Ken Caminiti, Greg Vaughn and Steve Finley, and the Padres ran away in the West, winning the division by 9.5 games.

1998/99 Diamondbacks ('98: 65-97, '99: 100-62): The expansion Diamondbacks lost 97 games in their inaugural season of 1998, but the signing of star left-handed pitcher Randy Johnson in the offseason dramatically altered their fortunes. Johnson went on to win the first of four straight Cy Young awards in 1999 and the Diamondbacks finished with 100 victories. They captured the NL West title by 14 games but fell to the Mets in the Division Series.

2006/07 Cubs ('06: 66-96, '07: 85-77): The Cubs slumped to a 96-loss season in 2006, but rebounded in 2007 behind new manager Lou Piniella and a roster bolstered by $300 million worth of new additions, like Alfonso Soriano and pitcher Ted Lilly. The Cubs were stuck at 22-31 in June before catching fire and winning the NL Central in the last week of the season.

2006/07 Diamondbacks ('06: 76-86, '07: 90-72): The D'backs lost 111 games in 2004 and even though they improved to 76-86 two years later, they still finished tied for last in the NL West. But in 2007, despite a young roster and an offense that was outscored for the season, the D'backs pitched their way to 90 wins and the NL West crown. Arizona was swept out of the NLCS by the Rockies.

2007/08 Rays ('07: 66-96, '08: 97-65): 2007 was not much different than every other season in the Rays' brief history. They lost 101 games, their third 100-loss season, and finished in last place in the AL East for the ninth time in their 10 seasons. But in 2008, with a cast of young stars led by rookie third baseman Evan Longoria, the Rays jumped to an early lead in the AL East and held it almost every day the rest of the way. After winning the division, the Rays advanced to their first World Series by eliminating the White Sox in the Division Series and the defending world champion Red Sox in the ALCS.

2010/11 Diamondbacks (’10: 65-97, ’11: 94-68): In a season projected by many to be a last place finish, the Arizona Diamondbacks bucked expectations maintaining playoff contention at the All Star break with a 49-43 record, only 3 games behind the 1st place San Francisco Giants. The Diamondbacks' success was credited to the approach of manager Kirk Gibson as well as strong starting pitching behind Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Joe Saunders, and rookie Josh Collmenter as well as a much improved bullpen led by closer J. J. Putz.

The point is that in baseball, clearly anything is possible as the record reflects. I’m not predicting the Mets will win it all in 2012, but I haven’t given up hope because there are a number of things to like about this team going forward. The return of Johan and a full season of Wright, the progression of Niese, Gee, Davis, Duda,, Murphy and of course the continual plan of building a strong foundation of pitching from within, e.g.) Matt Harvey, Zach Wheeler, J. Familia and J. Mejia. Quite frankly I’m tired of plugging holes with high priced free agents for the long haul which cripples our financial flexibility. And I’m not the only one who feels this way, in a recent poll conducted on one of my favorite blogs, metsblog.com, of the roughly 8,000 fans who voted 85% said they wouldn’t have given Reyes more than 5 years.

Listen fellow Met fans, it isn’t all gloom and doom in Metville. Baseball is a cyclical sport, we will be out from under this Madoff mess soon enough, and when we are, hopefully Alderson and his trusted regime of intellectuals would have built us a new sustainable nucleus, superior to the last one under Minaya that didn’t win us a thing! Please don't forget this, for every exciting moment Reyes provided he was equally frustrating, e.g.) .204BA during the September ‘07 collapse. REYES DID NOT WIN US A THING PEOPLE! When the Mets brass is able to put this financial nightmare behind them, possibly as soon as 2013, we might be able to supplement our core with one or maybe two of Josh Hamilton, Matt Cain, Zack Greinke or Brandon Phillips et al. My plea to you loyal Mets fans out there is: Don’t be fickle and jump ship, especially with this new MLB format. We root for the uniform, always remember it’s the blue and orange that runs through our veins. If your son disappoints you, do you abandon him? If your wife disappoints you do you divorce her? If your best friend upsets you do you put an end to your friendship? I sure hope our faith isn’t that capricious.

In keeping with my Christian faith I’d like to urge you to consider the following appeals: "Consider it pure joy, my brothers, whenever you face trials of many kinds, because you know that the testing of your faith develops perseverance. Perseverance must finish its work so that you may be mature and complete, not lacking anything." James 1:2-4 And don’t worry Met fans “…Weeping may last through the night, but joy comes in the morning.” Psalm 30:5.

A BRIGHT FUTURE

With all the negativity currently surrounding the Mets organization, I felt I needed to highlight a few positives so we can all collectively exhale. Here is a list of things we as fans can really get excited about:

1) The rebirth of Angel Pagan.

2) Jose Reyes is finally healthy again.

3) David Wright has regained his power stroke.

4) Ike Davis has brought stability to a position that has been lacking power and defense since the departure of John Olerud.

5) Jon Niese has emerged as at the very least a bona fide #3 starter.

6) Mike Pelfrey seems to have made some adjustments, and although he hit a rough patch, he looks like he’s putting it together. Either way, he has given us a solid year thus far with an 11-6 record and a solid 3.95 ERA.

7) Josh Thole is developing more and more each day; let’s not forget that he recently made his transition to catcher in 2008. Although he lacks the power of a Victor Martinez at this point in his career, the 23 year old possesses a tremendous ability to handle the stick as his current .323BA suggests. The future is bright for this kid and his gap power plus high on base percentage are a perfect match for CitiField.

8) Ruben Tejada has shown flashes of defensive greatness as a 2nd baseman.

9) Carlos Beltran struggled in his 1st year as a Met and rebounded to be an All-Star the following season and hopefully we can get the same kind of turn-a-round from Jason Bay.

10) Fernando Martinez will be our starting right fielder next year and quite frankly, I’m very excited about seeing him in our everyday lineup for the whole year. His latest resurgence in (AAA) really has flown under the radar, over his last 11 games at Buffalo before his call-up; he was batting .324 with three doubles, three HR and four RBI. Toby Hyde on MetsMinorLeagueBlog does an excellent job discussing how Fernando Martinez might be underrated by comparing him to some big prospects down on the farm.

So, in light of all this, we as Mets fans need to realize that at some point the Sun always shines after a storm! Barring any trades it excites me to know that our 2011 starting lineup could look something like this:

Jose Reyes SS
Angel Pagan RF
David Wright 3B
Carlos Beltran CF
Jason Bay LF
Ike Davis 1B
Josh Thole C
Ruben Tejada 2B

And our starting pitching could look something like this:

Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Jon Niese
Jenrry Mejia
RA Dickey/Pat Misch

I left out John Maine and Oliver Perez because I am hoping the Mets muster up the courage to just cut ties with them. Regardless, it feels good to know that the majority of our roster will be comprised of quality young players from our farm system. Despite the negativity surrounding this team, I feel they are headed in the right direction as long as they cut bait with the obvious bad apples. There is a popular saying which states that “One bad apple spoils the whole bunch”, well hopefully, Wilpon will subscribe to the American Journal of Botany, and skim to the section discussing this process and cut ties with Ollie P., the clear source of the foul gases infecting the Met bunch.


Nonetheless, our young talent is finally starting to sprout, and even with this plethora of young talent on the Major League level, we’ll still have highly rated prospects down on the farm like Wilmer Flores SS, Brad Holt RHP, Reese Havens 2B/SS, Juan Urbina LHP, Jordany Valdespin 2B/SS, Dillon Gee RHP, Kirk Nieuwenhuis OF and Matt Harvey RHP.

To those long suffering Mets fans out there: YA GOTTA BELIEVE!!!

Let's Give Murphy A Chance

I am so tired of hearing Mike Francesa on WFAN sports radio in New York, and everyone else for that matter, arguing that you need a power-hitting first baseman, a gold glove first baseman or a combination of both in order to win. Sure, it would be nice to have but it’s not always a prerequisite for success. I would like to provide you with a perspective that makes this clear. The following is a list of first baseman over the last 19 years, who have been on a World Series winning team, had similar production offensively or had numbers which are not far-fetched for Murphy:

Daniel Murphy, 2009, 1B, Mets:
Totals: .266BA, 12HR, 63RBI, 60R

Todd Benzinger/Hal Morris, 1990, 1B, Reds:

Benzinger: .253BA, 5HR, 46RBI, 35R
Morris: .340BA, 7HR, 36RBI, 50R
Totals: .292BA, 12HR, 82RBI, 85R

Kent Hrbeck 1991, 1B, Twins
Totals: .284BA, 20HR, 89RBI, 72R

Jeff Conine 1997, 1B, Marlins
Totals: .242BA, 17HR, 61RBI, 46R

Tino Martinez, 2000, 1B, Yankees
Totals: .258BA, 16HR, 91RBI, 69R

Mark Grace, 2001, 1B, Diamondbacks
Totals: .298BA, 15HR, 78RBI, 66R

Scott Spiezio, 2002, 1B, Angels
Totals: .285BA, 12HR, 82RBI, 80R

Kevin Millar, 2004, 1B Red Sox
Totals: .297BA, 18HR, 74RBI, 74R

The fact is that teams with a Murphy-type offensive player at 1B have won a World Series 7 times over the last 19 years. For all you mathematicians out there that is 37% of the time.

Granted some were slick fielders, like Grace but others weren’t exactly Keith Hernandez either, e.g. Kent Hrbeck, Spiezio. Why is it unrealistic to say that Murphy can develop into a good defensive first baseman? He wouldn’t be the first in history! In fact, he would be one of a long list of converted first baseman that made a good transition defensively, e.g. Albert Pujols, Todd Zeile, Jeff Bagwell to name a few. In fact, I argue, that he really evolved defensively as the 2009 season went along.

To my knowledge, all but two of the first baseman on the above list is either borderline or average defensively. Grace and Martinez were the only ones on this list who were great fielders and only Grace has won the gold gloves. Grace, however, was already past his prime at this point in his career with the Diamondbacks and his offensive output in 2001 didn’t exactly blow Murphy away. You are probably wondering why I included Tino Martinez considering that he was a good power hitting first baseman for most of his career, but for the first two full years of his career he hit 16HR with 66RBI, and 17HR with 60RBI, respectively. In 2000 he hit a robust .258 with 16HR.

Bottom line? Over the last 19 years a team has won a World Series title with a Murphy-type first baseman almost 40 percent of the time. It's a fallacious argument to say that the Mets can't win with Murphy at first base when other teams have power hitting at this position. I can always counter with the following rebuttal: how many teams in the NL have a Wright at 3B, a Reyes at SS, a Bay in LF, Beltran when healthy in CF or even Johan as their Ace in the hole? Not too many. Finally, it sounds like Murphy has worked hard during the off season, which is good news. Let’s not overlook that Murphy made some adjustments at the plate last year and actually had a decent 2nd half with no protection in the lineup. His final 72 games yielded the following line: .282BA, 7HR, 35RBI and 30R.

Hey, I may be all wrong and he may turn out to be a bust this year. But it’s a bit premature to start labeling this guy a bust or to start saying the Mets have no shot with him at first base. It’s a new season so let’s give “The Irish Hammer” a chance to start driving some nails in that Phillies coffin!

The Torpedo Job

Contributed by J.P.G.

We are just a couple of weeks away from opening day, so perhaps this a bit premature, but if the Mets fail to make the playoffs, there will be one man and one man only, to blame. It won't be Omar Minaya, or Jerry Manuel. It won't be the Wilpons. It won't be Reyes, Wright, Beltran or Delgado, either. It won’t be any of the bums vying for the 5th starter’s spot or other targets of our collective ire, such as Luis Castillo or Brian Schneider. Then it's gotta be Heilman, Shoeneweis, Sanchez or Ayala, right? Wait, all those guys are gone. Well then, who is it you ask? It's not a player, coach, or any member for the Mets organization for that matter. The man responsible for the Mets potential 2009 demise is none other than Bernie Madoff.

Now I'm not suggesting that anyone remove SNY from their favorites button of the remote control. Nor am I saying it's time to wave the white flag before the season even begins. The Mets have a solid team. In my opinion, they have the best starter, the best one-two punch at the back-end of the bullpen, the best center fielder and lead-off man in all of baseball. From top to bottom, the Mets are a talented team that has a realistic shot of winning it all.

With all that said, the Mets had a chance to go from a legitimate contender to the prohibitive National League favorite had they been more aggressive in a market that saw salaries for All-Star caliber players completely bottom out. Orlando Hudson, a brilliant defensive second baseman with above average skills offensively was allowed to go to the Dodgers for $3 million. The perfect replacement for Luis Castillo was allowed to slip away for less than what the Mets paid Scott Shoeneweis two years ago. They tried to low-ball a possible future Hall-of-Famer* in Bobby Abreu by offering him about $3.5 million. I don't love Bobby Abreu. He's soft, afraid of the wall, and he's left-handed, while the Mets’ are crying out for a righty slugger. Even so he would have been a major upgrade over Ryan Church in right. It is pretty obvious there was no chance he was coming after the Mets demonstrated a Pittsburgh Pirate-esque display of financial prowess when dealing with the aforementioned Abreu and Hudson. In a down market, a mega-market team like the Mets needs to strike while the iron is hot. They had the wherewithal to at least sign two of those guys. Or did they?...

*I know the words Hall-of-Famer and Bobby Abreu don't seem to be synonymous with one another but if you don't think the guy has a shot at the Hall, think again. He has eight seasons of 100+ RBI, a career BA of .300 after 13 seasons, an impressive 318 steals and barring injury he is a lock for at least 2,500 Hits. If he sticks around until he's 40, a liberal projection of his career numbers factoring in a decline would be 1500+ RBI, 300+ HR, a near .300 BA, 2,500+ Hits and 350+ SB. With these numbers he's a slam dunk for the Hall-of-Fame. And this tainted baseball era, that he's never been once mentioned as a steroid user, will only enhance his Hall-of-Fame resume.

Does it annoy you that our team is moving into a virtual cash cow of a new ballpark, has the aid of lush revenue streams courtesy of a regional sports network and is receiving $20 million per year in stadium naming rights courtesy of us taxpayers…ahem…I mean Citigroup, and is acting like a stiffer miser than Ebenezer Scrooge! Do the Wilpon's spend money lots of money? Sure they do. The Mets’ $145 million payroll is nothing to scoff at, no doubt. But even the lowly Pirates significantly raised payroll when they moved into their new ballpark. The Nationals were prepared to fork over $180 million for Mark Teixeira until he chose the Evil Empire, then they dropped $10 million for Adam Dunn. Look at the Royals recent transactions; they signed Jose Guillen for 36 million over 3 years, Gil Meche to 55 million over 5 years, re-signed Zach Greinke for 4 years and 36 million. They even aggressively signed some veteran relievers over the past few off-seasons.* The Mets, on the other hand, with all the extra revenue decide to maintain the exact same payroll. I hate to compare the Mets to the Yankees, but it's hard not to when you live right next door. Does anybody think there would be a snowball's chance in hell that Luis Castillo would be starting at 2nd Base if the Steinbrenner family owned the Mets? Is there any doubt that Manny, the greatest right-handed hitter of this era, that final missing piece, would not be wearing an interlocking NY on his cap?

*Many people scoff at the recent signings of the Royals. Most criticize the team for moves they deem dumb and overpriced. I can't blame them though. They know that premium players will never sign with them if they can get the same money elsewhere. They have no other real choice than to overpay for 2nd tier talent and hope that their young prospects can carry them to the next level. At least their ownership, lately, is showing they care by giving their fans a reason to show up to the ballpark. Look at the Twins, before his death in January, team owner Carl Pohlad, with a net-worth of $3.6 billion, was ranked #102 on Forbes list of the 400 Richest Men in America, and yet he would routinely let his best players walk in free-agency despite being a playoff contender every year. So would you rather be a Royal’s fan, knowing that ownership, at least recently, is making an attempt even if they fail? Or a Twins fan, knowing that your team might contend, but will never take that extra step because their ownership won’t make the extra acquisition necessary? Who really wants that agony?

Whether it’s dropping the ball after getting humiliated by the Yankees in 2000 and not signing A-Rod that off-season** or failing to fix their mistake by signing Vlad Guerrero in 2003, the Mets have had a disturbing history of coming up small when great players are there for the taking. Do I want the Mets to be exactly like the Yankees with a bloated $200 million dollar payroll? No, but do I expect our team who, according to Forbes has the 3rd highest revenue dollars in the sport, to throw caution to the wind and sign the one or two players that could put the team over-the-top? Damn right I do. As Mets fans we should not only expect it, we should demand it!

**As for A-Roid, this is one of those ‘had we known then what we know now, we wouldn't be complaining’ deals. Maybe signing A-Rod in the 2000 off-season would have blown up in our faces amid his turbulent stay here in NY. But I will defy anyone who claims, with a straight face, they weren't pissed as all hell that the Mets didn't sign him at the time. With respect to Vlad, Met officials actually used the bogus excuse that ‘doctors didn't like what they saw in the medical reports’, what a disgrace!

So why do the Mets, in big spots, with a chance to steal the back pages of the local tabloids always come up small? In past years, it was being gun-shy after the big money disasters like Bobby Bonilla, Vince Coleman, Frank Viola, Brett Saberhagen and Mo Vaughn. Then Omar took over and it looked like the Mets had finally taken that next step towards accepting the fact that NY isn't a mid-market and that in order to succeed with the fan base here you've gotta spend. To the Wilpon's credit, I think they started to make strides. Omar was able to convince them that building slowly through the farm was not the answer, and that the fans would not tolerate his Scroogism. So what happened? What changed? Well, it's time we come full circle and get back to our boy Bernie Madoff. Wilpon has lost up to $500 million in the Ponzi scheme, but claims this wouldn't effect their baseball operations. Does anybody believe a team like the Mets, under normal circumstances, would have allowed a guy like Abreu to sign with another team over a mere $1.5 million? Does anyone believe that our 5th starter would be one of the three bums who need either A-Roids, Metamucil, or both, instead of Pedro Martinez, if everything was kosher? Does anybody believe that the Mets wouldn't have shown some interest in Manny, even if it was just to appease the fan faithful, if everything was A-OK? The answer is NO! Rot in prison Bernie, and savor it while it lasts, because your new penthouse after prison will be in that luxurious, palatial living space known as, hell! With any luck O.J will be your cellmate! -J.P.G.